The State of Lancashire Report
External Threats
(Threats) 1. Prosperous Lancashire
Local Area Agreement Theme: Economic Development
• The Opportunities section stresses the enormous scale of some of the construction projects in London and highlights the need for the county to try and take advantage of these developments via improved links to the capital. On the other hand, major infrastructure projects such as Crossrail and the 2012 Olympics will absorb significant infrastructure, public sector and in particular lottery funding resources that could have been used in the north of England.
• The North West of England as a whole remains amongst the less prosperous regions of the UK. In 2008, gross value added per head was just 86% of the UK average which meant that out of the 12 UK standard regions and countries the region was ranked seventh lowest.
• In 2007, the Lancashire 14-authority area had a gross value added per head figure equivalent to just 77.6% of the UK average. In comparison, the ratio in 1995 was 90%. Lancashire has been getting more prosperous, but it has been doing so at a much slower pace than the nation at large. The economic strength of the financial services sector has a significant impact on the overall UK GVA figure, and this is exemplified by the dramatic growth in the GVA per-head rate for the inner-London (286.6% of UK average in 2007). The concentration of so much wealth generating capacity in a relatively small area of central London (14% of the UK total) means that it has a significant impact on the national figure and makes it difficult for even prosperous areas of the country to match the national rate of increase. The financial services sector was severely hit by the economic slowdown that commenced in 2008 and Lancashire is less reliant on this sector than other parts of the country. The county may prove to be less affected by the recession than other areas, but in times of economic growth it is proving very difficult for Lancashire to match national growth rates.
• Gross disposable household income is effectively the amount of money that after taxes and social contributions, etc households have available for spending or savings. The figures reveal a less pronounced pattern of relative long-term decline. In 2007, the per-head figure for the broader Lancashire area was 13% below the UK average. In 1995 the county result was 10% below the UK average.
• The key driver of the Lancashire economy is, and will continue to be, the private sector and the market itself, which as far as much industry and even some services are concerned, is increasingly becoming global in scope and sometimes beyond even the direct control of individual governments. Many key Lancashire companies operate in this global market and whilst they may be physically located in the sub-region, and regardless of any sense of affinity or loyalty they may have towards the county, when considering new investment, decisions are driven by costs and technology and not by location.
• The investment needed for long-term productivity growth is dominated by the private sector but the trend in manufacturing investment for example shows a marked decline over recent years. Some of this reduction will be because of the outsourcing of services to non-manufacturing sectors of the economy that were previously allocated to the manufacturing sector and the increasing role being played by financial or "intangible" investments in people, organisations and systems as opposed to investment in capital stock and equipment.
• A "job deficit" area suffering a daily net outflow of commuters to other parts of the UK (principally to work centres in Greater Manchester and Merseyside) in excess of 21,000.
• Long-term trends in unemployment levels confirm that the overall rate for the broader Lancashire area is inextricably linked to the changing fortunes of the national economy and all other factors are of limited importance. The essential message is that as the national rate rises and falls, the rate for the county follows a very similar pattern. Local initiatives to boost the economy, or major developments or redundancies all seem to have no more than perhaps a short-term impact. The broader Lancashire area has for many years benefited from having a lower unemployment rate than the national average however the difference has become less pronounced over recent years partly due to lower overall rates.
• Global competition, higher energy costs and potentially reduced use of local suppliers through increased use by many companies of off-shore out-sourcing" and "offsetting". Probability of further reductions in manufacturing employment opportunities. Economic gains from such processes will not necessarily accrue to Lancashire.
• The private research firm CACI ranks retail areas in Great Britain by their financial importance. For 2009, London's West End was in pole position with an estimated expenditure figure of £3,660 million. Manchester was ranked in fourth place (£1,870m) and Liverpool sixth (£1,500m), whilst the Trafford Centre was in 23rd position (£860m). The summary results included central Preston (£450m), Preston Deepdale Shopping Park (£140m), Blackpool (£290m) and Blackburn (£190m). Central Preston was ranked in 49th position (down from 38th in 2007) but it remained the fifth largest shopping area by value in the North West (Chester is the other centre in the region ahead of Preston). The regional competitive pressure on medium-sized shopping centres in Lancashire is intense. Developments such as Liverpool One and the Trafford Centre provide some very stiff competition. The Middlebrook retail park is just outside the county, and has grown to become a well established shopping and leisure destination (2009 expenditure figure of £200m). The continued growth of Internet shopping will also impact on the retail landscape in the county. The county council's strategic planning group publish monitoring reports that assess major retail applications and development trends.
• Compared with a previous era when Britain looked to the west and the Commonwealth, Lancashire now has a peripheral geographical location with respect to the European Union, potentially putting the area at an economic disadvantage. In terms of comparative rates of gross domestic product per head, the broader Lancashire area saw its rate drop below the 27 area European Union average in 2005 and deteriorate further in 2006.
• European Union eastward expansion and reviews of Common Agriculture funding levels and business support entitlements will have adverse effects on future levels of assistance to Lancashire.
• EU Objective 1 funding for Merseyside offers more generous business support funding than anything available in Lancashire.
• Average income levels can be noticeably higher than median results as a result of the influence of relatively small numbers of high earners, and can offer a somewhat distorted viewpoint of what would be a typical personal income. Global economic pressures may exacerbate wage-level differentials over years to come.
(Threats) 2. Accessible Lancashire
Local Area Agreement Themes: Environment, and Community Safety
• Inadequate east-west road and rail links, including Trans-Pennine links to the Humber and North East ports, which have the important links to mainland Europe and beyond. These East Coast Ports generate a level of commercial activity that is far in excess of anything that can be achieved by the three Lancashire Ports with their limited range of services.
• Without additional intervention there is likely to be a significant increase in the costs of congestion for business and individuals both within urban areas and across the strategic network. Increased journey costs would impose a challenge to economic transformation, constrain the labour market, worsen public transport accessibility and mode shares, pose increased problems for lower income groups and potentially impact on willingness to travel.
• Improvements to transportation networks result in a two-way flow of people and goods that have positive and negative economic and environmental affects that are complex to accurately quantify. Lancashire firms could find their local markets open to new competition pressures, sometimes from larger external businesses that may find it becomes easier to service Lancashire markets from afar. Lancashire residents also have easy access to shopping and leisure facilities outside the County e.g., the Trafford Centre. Transportation improvements have identifiable advantages, but can also lead to leakages of wealth from the County that go unnoticed.
• Within the county, the M65 extension between the south of Preston and the west of Blackburn opened in 1997. There is some evidence that this process led to a modest improvement in economic growth in the Blackburn with Darwen area and perhaps in other parts of East Lancashire. District changes in employee numbers since that date however emphasise the continuing growth of employment in the Central Lancashire authorities and a rather subdued picture in the East Lancashire area. The motorway extension improved access to East Lancashire but also made the core Central Lancashire area around the intersection of the M6, 61 and 65 motorways more desirable as a business location to service a wider accessible catchment area.
(Threats) 3. Dynamic Rural Lancashire
Local Area Agreement Theme: Environment
• Lancashire's important agricultural base and farm incomes are under pressure from changes in EU agricultural support policies, market circumstances, shifting consumer requirements and environmental concerns. There is a demand for an abundance of cheap food but at the same time farmers are expected to take account of the environment and look after rural landscapes, the welfare of farmyard animals and the health of consumers. Increasingly, farmers are supposed to respond to market forces, yet find themselves so insulated in some areas such as through European support policies and so marginalised in others that they can scarcely manoeuvre. Forecasts for the industry's future prospects are highly uncertain, largely because of the many unique imponderables it faces. In particular, underlying trends are heavily shaped by exchange rates and world commodity prices that are themselves highly uncertain to forecast. Moreover, ad hoc events such as weather conditions or disease outbreaks can push incomes well above or below underlying trends in individual years.
(Threats) 4. Greener Lancashire
Local Area Agreement Theme: Environment
• Increased personal mobility and advances in telecommunications technology have made all rural areas relatively accessible to people with their own transportation.. These trends, in combination with an enhanced perception of rural life, projected population increases and the pressure on farming incomes are placing increasing pressures upon the Lancashire countryside to accommodate built development.
(Threats) 5. Learning Lancashire
Local Area Agreement Themes: Children and Young People, and Economic Development
• The local employment market for highly qualified people appears limited. Better employment opportunities for skilled and highly qualified staff can often be found outside the County.
(Threats) 6. Every Child Matters
Local Area Agreement Theme: Children and Young People
• Lone parent rates have been increasing for a number of years and this trend is likely to continue. The additional pressure placed on just one parent (in most cases the mother) in raising one or more children impacts on the need for child care, welfare payments, flexible working arrangements, youth facilities and the general quality of life of those concerned.
(Threats) 7. Caring and Healthy
Local Area Agreement Theme: Health and Wellbeing
• Please also see the SWOT for the Lancashire Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (Health and Wellbeing).
• Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) have been reconfigured in line with government policy. In the local area there is the NHS North Lancashire, NHS Central Lancashire and the East Lancashire PCT. This means that there are three PCTs that together form the same boundary as the Lancashire County Council area. The addition of the Blackburn with Darwen PCT and Blackpool PCT means that there are five PCTs to cover the broader Lancashire area. Joint working and the setting of shared objectives and targets with other public sector agencies is easier given the new PCT structures. Improvements may however have been maximised had a single PCT coterminous with county council boundaries been created rather than the present three. The county council is committed to engaging constructively with the PCTs to work towards common priorities for health and well-being and secure appropriate services for vulnerable people across the county. In some cases this involves working on a sub-regional basis with Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen PCTs. The development of Multi-Area Agreements and a Joint Strategic Needs Assessment from 2008 has encouraged greater cooperation in the Lancashire County County area.
(Threats) 8. Living in Lancashire
Local Area Agreement Theme: People and Communities
• Volatile house prices and challenging economic conditions are leading to increasing numbers of mortgage possessions proceedings in the county courts in Lancashire and across the country. There is in contrast, the problem of housing market stagnation in a number of central urban areas in East Lancashire where old terraced properties (of which some are in poor condition) depress local property prices. Areas with significant proportions of terraced housing including Burnley, Pendle and Hyndburn have some of the highest vacant property rates in England.
(Threats) 9. Safer Lancashire
Local Area Agreement Theme: Community Safety
• Crime rates vary considerably within individual districts, being closely associated with such factors as levels of local deprivation, the nature of the housing stock and the number of transient visitors.See Safer Lancashire.
(Threats) 10. Older People's Lancashire
Local Area Agreement Theme: Older People
• Life expectancy is increasing in Lancashire as elsewhere in the UK but there is no guarantee that the extra years of life will necessarily equate to extra years of healthy life expectancy. In 1981 the expected time lived in poor health for males was 6.5 years; by 2001 this had risen to 8.7 years. Females can expect to live longer in poor health than males: in 1981 it was 10.1 years rising to 11.6 years in 2001. However, it is not a foregone conclusion that "extra" years of life expectancy should necessarily lead to additional years with ill health or disability. More suitable community services to enable independent living and more effective practice of preventive lifestyles and medicine has the potential to lengthen disability-free life expectancy, particularly in the case of the prevention and treatment of non-fatal but disabling diseases.
(Threats) 11. Cultural Lancashire
Local Area Agreement Theme: People and Communities
• Dependence on Manchester and Liverpool (future European capital of culture) for many higher-order social, cultural, business and financial services at the expense of urban centres within Lancashire.
• A major image problem amongst people in the south of the country regarding the many natural and built attractions of Lancashire and a lack of foreign visitors to the County.
• A wide range of historic properties and gardens in the county are open to the public and appeal to a growing number of visitors, e.g. Samlesbury Hall, Hoghton Tower, Helmshore Textile Mills, Townley Hall Museum, Art Gallery and Gardens, etc. Many benefit from local ownership and control, often by the historic family owners, independent trusts, or local authorities, but there is a corresponding lack of sites operated by national organisations. This could present a false impression, especially to non-residents, of the range of historic properties in the county open to visitors. For example, the National Trust and English Heritage have high profiles, large numbers of members and effective marketing strategies, yet their perceived impact in the county is minor. In 2009, the National Trust website mentions that it has 3.5 million members, 52,000 volunteers, 12 million people visit its pay for entry properties, it is responsible for over 300 historic houses and gardens and 49 industrial monuments and mills. A list of sites in Lancashire on the website mentions only two properties: Gawthorpe Hall and Rufford Old Hall, both of which have recorded declining attendances over recent years. In addition, English Heritage in 2007/08 had 665,000 members, received 5.3 million visitors to staffed properties, has responsibility for over 420 sites, but their website mentions only four in Lancashire: Goodshaw Chapel, Sawley Abbey, Warton Old Rectory and the Whalley Abbey Gatehouse (two others in the county offer a discount to members). In comparison in 2009, the neighbouring county of Cumbria, and Kent, a similar sized county in area and population terms to Lancashire, had 52 and 46 attractions respectively listed on the two sites that offer free entry to members.
• In July 2009, the English Heritage at Risk Register revealed that in the Lancashire County County area, there were 26 Grade I or Grade II* listed buildings on the register, 16 monuments and three parks and gardens (some sites are classified under more than one heading). In addition, Blackburn with Darwen unitary authority had one building and one monument at risk, whilst Blackpool unitary authority had two buildings at risk including the Winter Gardens. There is a total of 326 Grade I and II* buildings within the county council and unitary authority areas, 143 Scheduled Monuments and 34 Registered Parks and Gardens.
• In the Lancashire County Council area, there were five buildings given the highest 'A' priority for action (only buildings are given the ABC priority rating) including the west range of Whalley Abbey and Scarisbrick Hall, a building containing important and valuable artworks owned by the county council and which is part occupied by Kingswood College. Other buildings with a lower priority include Morecambe Winter Gardens, Lytham Hall and Bank Hall. The latter is in a very ruinous state and starred in a previous series of the 'Restoration' television programme, but the English Heritage website confirms that a joint scheme is being carried out by the Heritage Trust North West and Urban Splash for stabilisation and interpretation of the Hall, funded by significant enabling development. The Opportunities section of this State of Lancashire report mentions the challenge of trying to raise Lancashire's share of lottery funding. It would be interesting to see if in the future the cultural heritage of Lancashire can benefit more effectively from all organisations and funding sources that can help to maintain and enhance the county's cultural assets. A new section of the report deals with Conservation Areas at risk and lists 13 of the 200 Conservation Areas in the broader Lancashire County area, although it does not set out the specific reasons for their inclusion. An accompanying booklet describes the main threats to Conservation Areas, which include such factors as the insertion of UPVC windows, poorly maintained roads and pavements, and the accumulation of street clutter; it also sets out some of the main reasons for dealing with the problem, including important economic factors. As the national figure is one Conservation Area in seven at risk, the broader Lancashire area is better than average, but the county council's archaeology service, which has kindly provided much of the analysis in this cultural Lancashire section, does not think that there is any room for complacency.
• In 2009, there were 28 world heritage sites in the UK that are said to have outstanding universal value for humanity from the point of view of history, art or science. None of the UK sites are within the broader Lancashire area. In the North West, Liverpool (docks) achieved the WHS distinction as the 'marine merchantile city', but Blackpool's submission as the archetypal seaside resort was unsuccessful. It is doubtful that Lancashire will ever get a WHS, but perhaps the best candidates would be compact sites with strong link to particular individuals. The county is for example, associated with pioneers of the textile industry and the accompanying industrial revolution, but any proposal for a bid would need an enthusiastic and vocal support group, and government backing.
• Over recent years, growth in tourism-related employment in Lancashire has been reasonable in comparison with national trends. The economic slowdown that commenced in 2008, may lead to an increase in the number of overnight stays in Lancashire, but over the long-term, growth in air travel for business and leisure purposes may have a further adverse impact. Blackpool in particular is working hard to improve its facilities and image but competition from other areas for tourists and the conference trade is fierce.
(Threats) 12. Welcoming and Harmonious
Local Area Agreement Theme: People and Communities
• The long-term trend during times of economic growth suggests that Lancashire grows at a much slower rate than many other areas. At the same time disparities in wealth between different areas of the county appear to be widening as a result of limited job prospects and adverse social factors in some areas. For example, the resident population for England and Wales has shown a noticeable rate of growth for a number of years and this is also reflected in many parts of Lancashire. Burnley district however is an area of the county that has recorded a long-term population decline whilst other East Lancashire authorities have seen relatively low levels of growth. Problems of empty and unfit housing, social cohesion and economic growth etc., are made more difficult to address in areas that find it difficult to attract and retain residents. In addition, for a long period of time, employment growth has been most robust in the Central Lancashire area of the county.
• There are strong and weak urban/rural divisions; marked contrasts in local industrial structures; old and new small industrial and commercial centres; areas, it must be said, of poor housing and some social and economic deprivation but also areas of very considerable prosperity; areas still struggling with their industrial inheritance and areas which can look forward to the future with confidence and assurance. The creation of growing and vibrant communities across Lancashire is proving to be a challenge, and there is some evidence of increasing inequalities that may lead to strains on the social fabric of Lancashire and beyond.
• Burnley is a town still working to overcome a range of serious challenges and divisions that were brought to national attention. The Burnley Action Partnership's Community Strategy states that the neglect in some neighbourhoods, the 2001 disturbances, community tensions and expressions of polarisation have damaged the Borough's reputation. Negative media coverage and generalisations about the Borough formed externally, may inhibit inward investment and discourage families and skilled workers moving to the area. The issue of "parallel lives'" – people of different heritage living in isolation of one another – remains a challenge. Much has been achieved in Burnley over recent years, but there is still much more that has to be done in this and other Lancashire towns.
(Threats) 13. Image of Lancashire
Local Area Agreement Theme: People and Communities
• The Lancashire area was one of the cradles of the Industrial Revolution and retains a strong and diverse economic base under-pinned by a long urban and industrial tradition. The fact that it contains some areas which are the product of this earlier industrial era, and which struggle with their industrial inheritance, contributes to the fact that at best external perceptions of parts of Lancashire are neutral and at worst negative. So-called "quality of life" studies consistently place several of Lancashire's older industrial towns at the lower end of national rankings. These perceptions and the impact of negative stereotypes can be important determinants for future development.
This page was written by Bryan Moulding.
If you have any questions about the content of this page, please contact Bryan Moulding at Bryan.Moulding@lancashire.gov.uk.
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