Mike Montero, who moved his violin business from Syracuse, N.Y. to Chestnut… (MONICA CABRERA, THE MORNING…)
July 14, 2012|By Scott Kraus, Of The Morning Call
Maybe you were thinking that after three decades of rapid growth, the Lehigh Valley's population is bound to start level off.
How many more people could possibly move here from New Jersey?
Apparently quite a few.
Newly revised projections from the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission show that our strategically located and enticingly inexpensive region will grow as fast in the next 30 years as it did in the last 30, and could be home to an additional 227,000 people by 2040, bringing its total population to nearly 874,000.
"The migration is going to be the big deal, from New Jersey and New York, and points east," Planning Commission Executive Director Michael Kaiser said.
Some will be drawn by the affordable cost of living and family-friendly atmosphere that helped persuade Mike Montero to move his violin business from Syracuse, N.Y., to Chestnut Street in Emmaus last year.
"It is incredibly reasonable to live here," said Montero, who grew up on Staten Island, N.Y., and attended Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J. "From a taxes standpoint, it is a no-brainer. I meet some local people who complain about their taxes, I say you should live in New York."
Montero's wife, Jennifer, has found a welcoming community of parents, and his two daughters — 3-year-old Julianna and 8-month-old Gabriella, who was born at Lehigh Valley Hospital — have lots of kid-friendly activities within driving distance.
Montero, 33, said his business is doing well, and he has even persuaded his brother Patrick to move to the area. "I feel quite at home," he said.
Growing pains
The implications are broad, from the wear and tear of additional traffic on key arteries and demand on local school systems and water and sewer plants to the business opportunities presented by adding tens of thousands of consumers to the local economy.
The big unknown is where they will settle. Will they follow the waves of new residents who brought their two-car families into suburbs like Forks, Lower Macungie and Bethlehem townships in the last 20 years, or will they beat a path to the urban neighborhoods of Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton?
"It depends to some degree on how it gets distributed in the two-county area," Kaiser said. "We are working on that right now. Some interesting things have happened in the past few years. I don't think anyone would have predicted Allentown's population would have grown the way it did."
The U.S. Census showed Allentown's population hit 118,000 in 2010, adding more than 11,000 residents for a 10-year growth rate of nearly 11 percent. It was matched only by suburban Lower Macungie, which led the state, adding 11,400 people over the decade.
Lower Macungie's new residents have been generally better off financially than Allentown's, said Alan Jennings, whose Community Action Committee of the Lehigh Valley works closely with the urban poor and working-class residents.
That difference between the residents moving into urban and suburban towns has put additional strain on the economies of the Valley's three cities, despite their leaders' best efforts to attract more middle-income residents, he said.
"Largely this is happening because New Jersey's affordable housing program is called Pennsylvania," Jennings said.
The projections, based on the 2010 Census and other data, show Northampton County will grow at a slightly faster rate than Lehigh County over the next three decades, but that both will continue to add more than 30,000 residents a decade for the next 30 years.
They also suggest the recent slowdown in the economy and local housing market, which dramatically reduced regional growth over the last several years even in fast-growing townships like Forks in Northampton County, will eventually lift.
"I think the flattening-out part is temporary," Kaiser said. "I think at some point here things will turn around again. Recessions don't last forever."
Not only will the Lehigh Valley be growing, but it also will be getting older. By 2040, the number of people over age 75 will more than double to nearly 105,000, according to the projections. One in five people will be 65 or older.
The Lehigh Valley has a good network of support services and support networks for seniors, but the question is whether there will be enough funding to expand them to meet the growing need, said Rick Daugherty, director of the Lehigh County Senior Center.
"They are going to be older and people are living longer and there will be a need for more services. Hopefully we will be able to meet it," said Michelle Grasso, development director with Meals on Wheels of Lehigh County.
It also means the Valley's already booming health care industry will continue to thrive, Kaiser said.
Brain drain