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ATTENTION:
The Climate Prediction Center is soliciting
comments from August 1, 2023 through January 31, 2024 on the implementation
of the Week 2
and experimental Week 3 Global Tropics Hazards Outlook.
Here is the Survey.
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GTH Outlook Map and Data
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Last Updated -
01/23/24
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GTH Outlook Discussion
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Last Updated -
01/23/24
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Valid -
01/31/24 - 02/13/24
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Following a period of competing interference with other modes of tropical variability, the MJO became more coherent as it propagated eastward over the Maritime Continent and into the Western Pacific. Good agreement exists in the dynamical models looking ahead, which initially favor a high amplitude MJO signal over the Western Pacific that weakens and slows after the week-1 period. Enhanced convection associated with MJO activity is expected to provide favorable conditions for Tropical Cyclone (TC) development over the South Pacific Ocean, while a lingering potential for TC activity for the western Indian Ocean remains despite an unfavorable position of the MJO. The extratropical response with wintertime Maritime Continent and West Pacific MJO events typically leads to the development of warmer than normal temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. Strong subtropical westerly flow is forecast both near the surface and aloft, potentially leading to atmospheric river activity to affect the West Coast of the U.S. during the week-2 period.
There has been one TC that formed in the last week. On January 23 TC 07P formed in the Coral Sea several hundred kilometers southeast of New Guinea. Current forecasts favor a southwest track towards the northeastern coast of Australia, while increasing modestly in intensity. For the latest information on TC 07P please refer to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Model consensus for the week-2 period places the MJO in either phase 6 or 7, with enhanced convection moving from the Maritime Continent into the Western Pacific, resulting in elevated probabilities for TC formation for the South Pacific. The ECMWF extended range TC genesis forecast reflects this with probabilities of formation well over 40% for both weeks 2-3. During week-2 the highest probabilities (>40% chance) for TC genesis are centered over the Coral Sea with lower probabilities extending westward to the Gulf of Carpentaria. The GEFS extended range forecasts also indicate the enhanced potential for TC development in the Coral Sea. The South Indian Ocean has seen increased TC activity recently, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently monitoring an area of disturbed weather east of Madagascar, which is favored to become a TC in the near future. Extended range solutions from the ECMWF favor a continuation of enhanced probabilities for TC formation during week-2 for the southwestern Indian Ocean.
Ensemble model solutions suggest a slowing in MJO propagation during week-3 with the RMM-index remaining in phase 6 or 7. Velocity potential anomaly forecasts indicate that the MJO should shift eastward at least modestly though, thus the moderate risk for TC genesis from week-2 continues but is shifted slightly eastward in week-3. In the South Indian Ocean, the ECMWF continues to indicate an enhanced potential for increased TC activity during the week-3 time period despite an unfavorable position of the MJO.
The precipitation outlook for the next two weeks is based on anticipated TC tracks, the anticipated state of the MJO, and consensus of GEFS, CFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions. Above-normal precipitation continues for the Equatorial Eastern Pacific for both weeks, a response to the El Nino conditions, while suppressed precipitation is favored to the north of the El Nino-enhanced precipitation. Continued below-normal precipitation are indicated for the lower Amazon Basin for both weeks. Atmospheric river conditions are likely along the West Coast of the U.S. resulting in above-normal precipitation for the region while phase 6/7 MJO teleconnection forcing favors above-normal temperatures for much of the Contiguous U.S.
For hazardous weather conditions in your area during the coming two-week period, please refer to your local NWS office, the Medium Range Hazards Forecast produced by the Weather Prediction Center, and the CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook. Forecasts made over Africa are made in coordination with the International Desk at CPC.
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Product Release Information
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH) is released once per week every Tuesday at 1730 UTC (1830 UTC when on standard time) including U.S. federal holidays.
At the time of product release, there is a live briefing (available via Google Meet) open to all stakeholders where the latest conditions and the newly
released outlook are shared with the opportunity to ask questions. Folks that are interested in learning more or attending these briefings should contact
Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov, Scott.Handel@noaa.gov, Adam.Allgood@noaa.gov and Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov for the required information. Each weekly outlook and GTH release briefing is
Archived and available on the website.
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Product Description
The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook is a probabilistic forecast for areas with elevated probabilities for above- or below-median rainfall, above- or below-normal
temperatures and regions where tropical cyclogenesis is favored for the upcoming Week-2 and Week-3 time periods. The rainfall outlook is for precipitation
integrated over a week and targets broad-scale patterns, not local conditions as they will be highly variable. Above (below) median rainfall forecast areas are
depicted in green and brown respectively. Above (below) normal temperature forecast areas are depicted in orange and blue respectively. Favored areas for tropical
development are shown in red. Three probability intervals are indicated for precipitation and temperature which are set at 50, 65, and 80%, while the probability
intervals for tropical cyclone development are set at 20, 40, and 60%. The weekly verification period ranges from 00 UTC Wednesday to 00 UTC the following
Wednesday.
Along with the product graphic, a written text outlook discussion is also included at release time. The narrative provides a review of the past week across
the global Tropics, a description of the current climate-weather situation, the factors and reasoning behind the depicted outlook and notes on any other
issues the user should be aware of. The discussion discusses the impacts in the Tropics as well as potential impacts in the Extratropics when relevant.
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Product Physical Basis
The product synthesizes information and expert analysis related to climate variability across multiple time scales and from various sources, including operational
climate monitoring products. The physical basis for the outlooks include
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) , the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO),
strength and variations of the monsoon systems, other coherent subseasonal tropical variability such as atmospheric Kelvin waves (KW), Equatorial Rossby waves
(ERW), African easterly waves, as well as interactions with the extratropical circulation (i.e. high latitude blocking, low-latitude frontal activity, etc.).
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Product Forecast Tools
The outlook maps are currently based on a number of forecast tools, many of which are objective and serve as an objective first guess. The final depiction is an
assessment of these objective forecast tools augmented by the forecaster when based on additional forecast information when appropriate to create the final product.
Forecast tools include MJO composites, empirical and dynamical based MJO, ERW and KW forecasts, and bias-corrected dynamical model guidance from a number of modeling systems.
Tropical cyclone areas are based on MJO composites and statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone forecast guidance products as well as raw model forecast guidance.
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Product Purpose
The product supports the NOAA mission in three primary ways:
- Assess and forecast important changes in the distribution of tropical convection (i.e., potential circulation changes across the Pacific and North America sectors) and communicate this information to NWS forecasters
- Provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the global tropics (including tropical cyclone risks for several NWS regions)
- Support various sectors of the U.S. economy (finance, energy, agriculture, water resource management) that have foreign interests.
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Product Partners
The product is created through collaboration with other NOAA centers, [the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center (CPHC)], the Department of Defense [The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)],
the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, the State University of New York at Albany (SUNY) and the Center
for Climate and Satellites (CICS), among other collaborators.
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Product Users and Applications
Known users include U.S. government agencies such as NOAA [National Weather Service (NWS), River Forecast Centers (RFCs), the National
Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Department of the Interior (U.S. Forest Service), aid organizations (U.S. and international Red Cross,
USAID), domestic and global private sector interests (financial, energy, water resource management and agricultural sectors),
international weather services and various media meteorologists.
Some special applications of the product in the past include extended range predictions to support Haiti earthquake and Deepwater
Horizon oil spill relief efforts as well as support for the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) scientific field campaign held from
October 2011 through March 2012.
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Product Resources
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Feedback and Questions
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