THE urban sprawl from Scotland’s two largest cities will create one of the world’s largest “mega-corridors”, according to scientists who predict mass migration will transform the central belt into a thriving economic hub populated by more than 7m people in just over a decade.
A new report estimates that, by 2025, Edinburgh and Glasgow will be “emerging mega-cities” with populations in excess of 1m people — their sprawling suburbs will bring the city boundaries closer to towns such as Livingston and Falkirk to create a mega-corridor where the vast majority of Scotland’s population will live and work.
It predicts that by 2025, about 81% of the UK population will live in urban regions and that London will become a megacity — defined as having a population of 8m and a gross domestic product of £180bn — nestling in a mega-region of more than 13m people, taking in areas such as Brentwood, Sevenoaks, Woking and Harlow.
Globally, the number of megacities is expected to more than triple to 35 over the next decade.
Megacities emerge as core city centres merge with suburbs to form mega-regions, mega-corridors and even mega-slums.
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Archana Amarnath, global research manager at Frost & Sullivan, a consultancy firm which compiled the report with Hitachi Europe, said Edinburgh and Glasgow had “managed to weather” the recent economic storm and had registered faster growth rates in the first three months of 2014 than the whole of UK.
“Edinburgh is focusing on regeneration, inward investment and increasing jobs, contributing to £1.3bn of new development by 2017,” said Amarnath. “Glasgow, on the other hand, has also been projected to become one of UK’s leading cities in the future. Around £2.2bn a year is expected to be added to the city’s gross domestic product [with the signing of the recent £1bn-plus City Deal].
“The deal is also expected to attract an additional £3.3bn in private investment, signalling increased competitiveness, big infrastructure upgrades, creation of jobs and overall economic growth.”
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The report warns that social innovations in the fields of energy, transport and health will be crucial to economic success in the new age of megacities. It identifies the energy sector as a key driver for economic growth, as the EU proposes 40% energy efficiency targets for 2030.
Many coal plants will also need to be shut down by the end of 2015 as they will not comply with emissions requirements.
This will lead to the need for new power generation capacity through alternative energy sources, the most prominent being wind power.
Last year, David Willetts, the minister for universities and science, announced that Glasgow had been chosen to receive £24m of government investment to demonstrate how a city of the future would work.
It beat competition from 30 other UK cities to show how health, transport, energy and public safety can improve the local economy and increase the quality of life of citizens.
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Glasgow’s economy is worth almost £17bn and it is the UK’s most popular shopping destination outside London’s West End with an annual retail spend of £2.6bn.
Councillor Frank Ross, economy convener at Edinburgh city council, said that Scotland’s capital is the most prosperous UK city outside London, with unemployment rates “at their lowest for years”.
“People are attracted to work, live, visit and invest in Edinburgh as the city is a world-class brand and tourist destination. You only have to walk around Edinburgh and take in the rich culture and heritage to understand why it is a multi-award-winning city, attracting millions of visitors each year.”