*The Wrong Stuff: How the Soviet Space Program Crashed and Burned*
By John Strausbaugh, an excellent book. Here is one good passage of many:
Putting dogs on top of rockets was nothing new. Since so little was known about the effects that blasting off in a rocket might have on th ehuman body and brain — the g-force of acceleration, the disorientation of weightlessness, the impact of radiation, the g-force of deceleration — the Soviets and the Americans both had been using various species of animals to test conditions since the 1940s. The Americans started sending up fruit flies aboard their White Sands V-2s in 1947. An anesthetized rhesus monkey they named Albert II…went up eighty-three miles in a V-2 in 1949. Unfortunately, his parachute failed to oepn on reentry and he was smashed to death on impact with the ground. The Americans continued to send up primates in the 1940s and 1950s. Something like two-thirds of them died. They used many other species as well, maybe the oddest of which was black bears, who were strapped into a rocket-powered sled at a facility with the deceptively sweet name the Daisy Track to test the physical effects of ultra-rapid acceleration and deceleration.
Recommended.
Saturday assorted links
1. Iran to give awards to religious leaders who convince their congregants to have more babies.
3. How much of life on earth is “dormant”?
4. Akira Endo, RIP. He discovered statins.
5. ““Walking” Tree That Looks Like An Ent Just Won New Zealand Tree Of The Year.”
6. What rate of tariff needed to replace income tax revenues?
Where are the female composers?
Ludwig van Beethoven, Johann Sebastian Bach, and Fr´ed´eric Chopin are household names, but few will recognize Francesca Caccini, Elisabeth Lutyens or Amy M. Beach, who are among the top-10 female composers of all time. Why are female composers overshadowed by their male counterparts? Using novel data on over 17,000 composers who lived from the sixth to the twentieth centuries, we conduct the first quantitative exploration of the gender gap among classical composers. We use the length of a composer’s biographical entry in Grove Music Online to measure composer prominence, and shed light on the determinants of the gender gap with a focus on the development of composers’ human capital through families, teachers, and institutionalized music education. The evidence suggests that parental musical background matters for composers’ prominence, that the effects of teachers vary by the gender of the composer but the effects of parents do not, and while musician mothers and female teachers are important, they do not narrow the gender gap in composer prominence. We also find that the institutionalization of music education in conservatories increases the relative prominence of female composers.
That is from a new research paper by Karol Jan Borowiecki, Martin Hørlyk Kristensen, and Marc T. Law, via K.
Denmark recalls Korean ramen for being too spicy
Three fiery flavours of the Samyang instant ramen line are being withdrawn: Buldak 3x Spicy & Hot Chicken, 2x Spicy & Hot Chicken and Hot Chicken Stew.
Denmark’s food agency issued the recall and warning on Tuesday, urging consumers to abandon the product.
But the maker Samyang says there’s no problem with the quality of the food.
“We understand that the Danish food authority recalled the products, not because of a problem in their quality but because they were too spicy,” the firm said in a statement to the BBC.
“The products are being exported globally. But this is the first time they have been recalled for the above reason.”
It’s unknown if any specific incidents in Denmark had prompted authorities there to take action.
The Danish Veterinary and Food Administration said it had assessed the levels of capsaicin in a single packet to be “so high that they pose a risk of the consumer developing acute poisoning”.
“If you have the products, you should discard them or return them to the store where they were purchased,” it said in a statement.
It also emphasised the warning for children, for whom extremely spicy food can cause harm.
The notice has sparked heated discussion online with many amused reactions from lovers of spicy food. Many have made assertions about the Danes’ low tolerance for spice.
Here is more from Frances Mao. Via Sam Mendelsohn.
Another Friday assorted link(s)
Trump on AI. It feels like someone just showed him a bunch of stuff for the first time? And here is Trump on UFOs.
Friday assorted links
1. New AI video generator, open for public use.
2. The Chicago Cubs really were hurt by playing day games (a semi-new Substack from a GMU Ph.D. student). And his (Nicholas Decker) observations on South African unemployment.
3. Major deposits of rare earth minerals discovered in Norway, never underestimate elasticity of supply.
4. Summary take on the Mediterranean diet, and other diets.
5. “The Israelis are using trebuchets. The Chinese and Indians are fighting with clubs and knives along the LOC. There is trench warfare in Ukraine. Retro-fication of warfare continues” Link here.
6. Search instead of scaling? And further results in that general direction. Many of the “AI winter” types are not taking these directions seriously enough. And from Rohit: “This is wild, and also why it is so hard to say what llms can’t do, because providing it a template to do a thing is equivalent to teaching it to do it.”
Enhancing FDA Information Sharing for Neglected Tropical Diseases
Many countries look to the US FDA for guidance on approval decisions. In fact the FDA will sometimes receive and evaluate drugs and vaccines whose primary market is in less developed countries. Fexinidazole, for example, is a drug for treating African trypanosomiasis, i.e. sleeping sickness. We don’t get many cases of sleeping sickness in the US but there are many such cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Thus, the US FDA is providing a useful service, both to US pharmaceutical firms and especially to developing countries. That’s great. But Jacob Trefethen of OpenPhil notes that for odd bureaucratic and legal reasons we redact a lot of information that could be useful to the countries that actually will use these treatments. Here, for example, is an excerpt from the approval decision for Fexinidazole:
What’s especially strange here is that as far as Trefethen, or I, can tell, no one wants this! The FDA has no reason to hide this information, the company submitting the proposal surely wants as much information as possible sent to the countries where they will ultimately need to get approval (remember this is successful applications!) and the medical agencies in the developing countries would like to get context to have confidence in the FDA’s decisions. Instead, it seems that these drugs are getting caught in rules intended to protect pharmaceutical firms in other contexts. Thus, Trefethen makes two suggestions:
let’s create a track for products on the Neglected Tropical Disease list, sharing assessments with few or no redactions with the WHO Pre-Qualification (PQ) system, and allow PQ to share those documents further with regulators in partner countries.
Such an approval track already exists in the EU:
[The EU] have an approval track for products that are mostly going to be used elsewhere. If you apply using that track, they loop in regulators from those countries too. They share the documents assessing your clinical data and inspecting your manufacturing site with the WHO prequalification (PQ) team – the team whose stamp of approval speeds things up for many countries with less experienced national regulators. Gavi and the Global Fund need a product to be prequalified in order to buy it through the UN procurement agencies (e.g. UNICEF, for children’s vaccines).
Even without an approval track there are other small changes in priority and emphasis that could improve information sharing. The FDA is not unaware of these information sharing issues, for example, and there are procedures in place for confidentiality agreements with other countries. Trefethen suggests these could be given greater priority.
FDA leadership should set aggressive goals to complete more two-way Confidentiality Commitments with lower- and middle-income country regulators.
Extend the scope of existing commitments, when they’re limited, to allow sharing in more areas – especially related to drug approvals.
Extend 708(c) authority to more country agreements, not just those with European countries, to allow sharing of full documents that include trade secrets.
I’ve long advocated for peer approval, Trefethen gets into the weeds to point to specific ideas to make this a more useful idea, especially for developing countries. See Trefethen for more ideas!
Jimmy’s Jobs of the Future episode
From Jimmy:
Here is the post on LinkedIn and here is the post on X / Twitter. Any engagement / amplification would be much appreciated. Here is the link to the YouTube episode.
I had good fun doing this episode…
How to think about UAPs
I have a new Bloomberg column on that topic, I would most of all stress the closer:
When I think about all this, I try to keep two questions separate. First, is there a major puzzle to account for? And second, what is the best explanation for that puzzle? It helps to focus on the first question in isolation, since we can’t seem to keep our heads on straight when it comes to the second.
By admitting that there is a real puzzle to be solved, the Senate Intelligence Committee has moved decisively to answer the first question. Once we clarify exactly what the puzzle is, maybe we’ll be able to make some progress explaining it.
As for background:
The Senate Intelligence Committee isn’t buying it. The Intelligence Authorization Act , which it passed last week, among other things calls for review of the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office . The bill would also limit research into what are now called UAPs (for unidentified anomalous phenomena) unless Congress is informed and add whistleblower protections for anyone who might wish to step forward and speak their minds.
Recommended, I make other points as well.
What is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence
We study newsworthiness in theory and practice. We focus on situations in which a news outlet observes the realization of a state of the world and must decide whether to report the realization to a consumer who pays an opportunity cost to consume the report. The consumer-optimal reporting probability is monotone in a proper scoring rule, a statistical measure of the amount of “news” in the realization relative to the consumer’s prior. We show that a particular scoring rule drawn from the statistics literature parsimoniously captures key patterns in reporting probabilities across several domains of US television news. We argue that the scoring rule can serve as a useful control variable in settings where a researcher wishes to test for bias in news reporting. Controlling for the score greatly lessens the appearance of bias in our applications.
That is a new paper from Luis Armona, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica, and Jesse M. Shapiro. I take this to mean the actual bias is more toward surprising news than negative news per se? Via Paul Novosad.
Thursday assorted links
1. Are border crossings really at an all-time high? Maybe not.
2. Some detail on who pays whom in OpenAi and Apple (Bloomberg). Not everything in the article is clear to me, but it seems at first no one is paying anybody? Eventually there may be revenue-sharing agreements.
3. What is it like to work in an Ethiopian factory?
4. How to cut an onion (NYT).
5. Harrison C. White, RIP (NYT).
6. My 2018 Bloomberg column on Macron. And complex thread on French politics. And Zemmour as train wreck?
7. Any chance of a nascent bank run in Russia? Some exaggerators say a ruble collapse is coming.
Milei update
Argentina President Javier Milei’s economic reform package won a key victory when the Senate approved his omnibus bill Thursday but additional income tax legislation was rejected following debate marred by violent protests that broke out earlier in front of congress.
After weeks of tense negotiations, senators passed Milei’s market-friendly plan that included privatizations and labor law changes when his vice president broke a 36-36 tie. Hours later, the income tax portion of a second bill failed in a vote that went section-by-section through the proposal.
Both the income tax proposal — which Milei’s supporters made changes to late on Wednesday to help smooth passage — and the omnibus economic bill still need to go back to the lower house.
Underscoring some of the political resistance to Milei’s proposals, protesters threw rocks, broken glass and Molotov cocktails Wednesday afternoon at riot police attempting to clear a nearby plaza with a water cannon and tear gas. Protesters also flipped and burned a car.
Despite the income tax setback, the economic changes approved in the first bill would mark Milei’s his biggest legislative achievement, one investors are likely to cheer.
Here is more from Bloomberg. Here are numerous ungated versions of the story.
Intel and its superloads
Intel’s new campus coming to New Albany, OH, is in heavy construction, and around 20 super loads are being ferried across Ohio’s roads by the Ohio Department of Transportation after arriving at a port of the Ohio River via barge. Four of these loads, including the one hitting the road now, weigh around 900,000 pounds — that’s 400 metric tons, or 76 elephants. The super loads were first planned for February but were delayed due to the immense planning workload. Large crowds are estimated to accumulate on the route, potentially slowing it even further.
Intel’s 916,000-pound shipment is a “cold box,” a self-standing air-processor structure that facilitates the cryogenic technology needed to fabricate semiconductors. The box is 23 feet tall, 20 feet wide, and 280 feet long, nearly the length of a football field. The immense scale of the cold box necessitates a transit process that moves at a “parade pace” of 5-10 miles per hour. Intel is taking over southern Ohio’s roads for the next several weeks and months as it builds its new Ohio One Campus, a $28 billion project to create a 1,000-acre campus with two chip factories and room for more. Calling it the new “Silicon Heartland,” the project will be the first leading-edge semiconductor fab in the American Midwest, and once operational, will get to work on the “Angstrom era” of Intel processes, 20A and beyond.
Here is the source, via Mathan Glezer.
My Conversation with Velina Tchakarova
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode summary:
Founder of the consultancy FACE, Velina is a geopolitical strategist guiding businesses and organizations to anticipate the outcomes of global conflicts, shifting alliances, and bleeding edge technologies on the world stage.
In a globe-trotting conversation, Tyler and Velina start in the Balkans and then head to Russia, China, North Korea, and finally circle back to Putin’s interest in the Baltics. She gives her take on whether the Balkan Wars still matter today, the future of Bulgarian nationalism, what predicts which Eastern European countries will remain closer to Russia, why China will not attack Taiwan, Putin’s next move after Ukraine, where a nuclear weapon is most likely to be used next, how she sources intel, her unique approach to scenario-planning, and more.
Here is one excerpt on a matter of great importance:
COWEN: Maybe we’ll come back to Bulgaria, but let me try some questions about the broader world. Why is it you think China will not attack Taiwan? They claim it as theirs, and arguably, in five to ten years, they’ll be able to neutralize our submarine advantage from the US with underwater drones and surveillance of our submarine presence. At that point, why don’t they just move on Taiwan and try to take it?
TCHAKAROVA: Well, I do understand that there is a lot of analysis coming out right now, especially on behalf of the military experts, not only in the United States but also in other parts of the world, pointing to this realistic scenario that we may see a military attack by China on Taiwan not later than 2027. And why 2027? Because it is being anticipated as the year when China will be able to catch up militarily with the United States.
I do not share this assessment. I just don’t see why China will have to take such a big risk in achieving something that it can achieve in a much smarter and more efficient way. What do I mean by that? I call this approach “death by a thousand cuts.” That would mean that China could spend a little bit longer in a slow but steady political, social, economic, and societal penetration of Taiwan. We could argue it’s the old Soviet playbook. It could be done in a more subtle way, using plausible deniability.
Taiwan is still the most successful democracy in the Indo-Pacific. That means, also, it is vulnerable to this kind of penetration, where you can practically use agents provocateurs on the ground. You can buy up a lot of institutional or individual players. You can start doing all this subversion process in a longer timeframe, but it could bring about bigger success than actually risking military intervention, which is not giving you, I would say, even a 50–50 chance of success.
The terrain of Taiwan, if we compare it with the most sophisticated war that’s going on right now, is much more difficult. You have a very, very limited window to attack. In the case of Taiwan, this window of opportunity is probably limited only to two periods in the whole year, which, of course, is also known by everyone in the region. That particularly means the defense of Taiwan. You have a window of opportunity in April and then in October, so you cannot attack at any time in the year.
It is a sophisticated military attack that cannot be conducted on the whole of the island. Even though China is catching up militarily right now, I think that the mindset of this Chinese leadership — the way the Chinese leadership is actually conducting strategy — does contradict such risky endeavor, again because time is on China’s side. China only needs to really prepare this sum of minor actions in a longer period of time. At least, this is what I would actually do as a strategist, which would promise a much better percentage of success than, like I said, an adventurous military attack.
Now, we may argue that under unanticipated circumstances for the political leadership — think of a situation where the political stability in China is shaken, where the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, is somehow put into a corner to take a very, let’s say, ad hoc decision on the matter because of certain circles of the hawks, of the military hawks. Of course, we have this possibility as well. It could be a black swan event, something that has happened in China, and this makes him take this decision in order to draw the attention away from internal problems.
Foreign policy adventures are always gathering public support. It’s not 100 percent to be excluded, but in my scenario, I would actually point to, as I explained, this death-by-a-thousand-cuts approach rather than a military attack on Taiwan.
COWEN: Are we now in a world where the laws of war are basically obsolete?
It is worth repeating that issues of foreign policy are very much the most important issues. And here is Velina on Twitter.
A virtual rodent predicts the structure of neural activity across behaviors
Animals have exquisite control of their bodies, allowing them to perform a diverse range of behaviors. How such control is implemented by the brain, however, remains unclear. Advancing our understanding requires models that can relate principles of control to the structure of neural activity in behaving animals. To facilitate this, we built a ‘virtual rodent’, in which an artificial neural network actuates a biomechanically realistic model of the rat in a physics simulator. We used deep reinforcement learning to train the virtual agent to imitate the behavior of freely-moving rats, thus allowing us to compare neural activity recorded in real rats to the network activity of a virtual rodent mimicking their behavior. We found that neural activity in the sensorimotor striatum and motor cortex was better predicted by the virtual rodent’s network activity than by any features of the real rat’s movements, consistent with both regions implementing inverse dynamics. Furthermore, the network’s latent variability predicted the structure of neural variability across behaviors and afforded robustness in a way consistent with the minimal intervention principle of optimal feedback control. These results demonstrate how physical simulation of biomechanically realistic virtual animals can help interpret the structure of neural activity across behavior and relate it to theoretical principles of motor control.
Here is the new Nature article by Diego Aldarnado, et.al. Via @sebkrier.