ViewpointCost–benefit analysis of space exploration: Some ethical considerations
Introduction
Humanity faces many important decisions about space exploration. Should we send humans to the Moon, to Mars, and/or beyond? Should we develop self-sufficient space colonies, e.g. through terraforming? Should we preserve extraterrestrial planets in their native form?
In studying how we go about answering questions such as these, it is helpful to distinguish between an ethical framework and a decision-making paradigm. An ethical framework is an underlying view of what is fundamentally right and wrong which can be used to evaluate specific decisions. A decision-making paradigm is a procedure for making decisions given both an ethical framework and the requirements of a decision-making scenario, such as limited time and information. Different ethical frameworks can – and indeed often do – share the same decision-making paradigm in certain scenarios.
Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is a prominent decision-making paradigm. Many government agencies around the world are often asked to justify their programs via CBA. For example, CBA justification is required of all agencies of the Executive Branch of the USA, including NASA [1], [2]. CBA also has strong support from some sectors of the academic community, including economics and risk analysis. Finally, private businesses also employ a form of CBA in much of their decision making.
Despite its prominence, CBA remains highly controversial. Many reject outright CBA on ethical grounds; others accept CBA itself but object to the way in which it is commonly implemented, also on ethical grounds (see [3] for discussion). Even within the common approach to CBA implementation, there exists great flexibility in how to conduct and interpret the analysis; again, different ethical frameworks will yield different implementations. How – if at all – CBA is implemented has substantial implications for space exploration decision making and is thus the focus of this article.
The article discusses some ethical considerations in CBA as they pertain to space exploration. Section 2 provides some background information on the CBA paradigm, including a discussion of how costs and benefits are defined. Section 3 discusses non-market valuation, which is the process of valuing costs and benefits that cannot be priced through market transactions. Section 4 discusses the issue of standing, the issue of whose costs and benefits are relevant to CBA. Section 5 discusses discounting, the process for comparing costs and benefits that occur at different points in time. Section 6 concludes.
Section snippets
The CBA paradigm
In the cost–benefit analysis decision-making paradigm the outcomes of possible decisions are analyzed in terms of their costs and benefits. For a given possible decision, if the benefits are larger than the costs, then that decision is said to pass the CBA; if the costs are larger than the benefits, then the decision is said to fail the CBA.
In general, as the benefits of a decision increase and the costs decrease, the decision becomes more likely to be recommended. If the underlying ethical
Non-market valuation
The common approach to CBA defines costs and benefits in terms of their values in market transactions, measured in units of money. However, many phenomena that we value are not exchanged in markets. They include such things as ecosystem services such as clean air and water [14], the existence of ecosystems even in the absence of any human use thereof [15], and our own lives [6]. In order to include these values in CBA, it is common practice to conduct non-market valuation [16]. Non-market
Standing
Standing concerns whose costs and benefits count in CBA. Though often overlooked in CBA design, whom to give standing to can be a crucial concern [42]. For example, a CBA that gives standing only to the contemporary residents of one region may recommend far less environmental protection than a CBA that gives standing to everyone in the world over a long time period. Standing is also an important factor in space exploration.
One important question for CBA of space exploration is whether to give
Discounting
Discounting generally refers to the process of comparing the values of costs and benefits that occur in different points in time. The discounting concept is often weakly understood and haphazardly implemented [55]. However, how discounting is implemented is an important part of CBAs of decisions which cause future costs and benefits. The longer-term the decision, the more important discounting becomes. As space exploration involves some very long-term decisions, discounting is highly important
Conclusions
CBA is a prominent decision-making paradigm that can be used to guide space exploration decision making. While it is commonly expressed in units of money, CBA broadly understood offers considerable flexibility in how it is expressed. Both within and beyond the common expression of CBA, several ethical issues arise. How these issues are addressed can significantly affect space exploration decision making. However, where space exploration reduces the risk of human extinction, it will probably be
Acknowledgments
I thank Shawn Domagal-Goldman, Jacob Haqq-Misra, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this article.
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